NBA Western Conference's superiority's persistence

Foxsports.com's Charley Rosen touches on this subject today.and, as usual, there is lively discussion thereafter.

A crucial point that is missed in the article and the discussion thereafter is that the West is continually rewarded by virtue of this playoff structure. Certainly a lot of good teams in the West don't get to make the playoffs and they probably have diminished financial reward, fewer playoff games' bounties returning to their coffers, less fan excitement and lowered attendance if the team doesn't make the playoffs; however, once the draft comes along a short while thereafter, the Western Conference benefits, and the Eastern conference suffers.

How so? Well, briefly, and first of all: looking from the bottom up, stronger teams in the Western Conference get lottery picks by virtue of not making the playoffs. If the season were to end today relatively strong Western teams such as Denver and Portland would get lottery picks, whereas weaker teams from the east such as Toronto, Atlanta, and Philadelphia would not.

This persists year after year. There also is the additional multiplier factor of weakness that is covered-over by the fact that we just look at overall team records in determining draft position (specifically for those non-lottery) -- and aside from a little bit of ping-pong ball statistical shakeup for the very worst teams -- for lottery teams as well. Because conference teams play more of their games within their own individual conference there is a masking effect of actually how bad the Eastern conference teams are. Specifically, Eastern conference teams have their records pumped up, aggrandized, made better than they actually should be by virtue of playing the weaker teams amongst themselves.

This year, to date the NBA West versus East Interconference record shows 241 to 180 for the west, or 57.3%. Teams play double the number of games out of conference as within conference. Thus a team from the West gets to play one third of its games against the weaker Eastern conference with an average likelihood of winning those games at 57.3%, which might sound as if it pumps their records up, but on the other hand they have to play two thirds of their games against those clobbering Western teams, depressing their records, relative to their true strength.

Looking at it another way the Western Conference gets to play these weaker teams only half as often as the Eastern conference does. Eastern teams get to spend two thirds of their schedule playing amongst themselves.

If teams play approximately one third of their 82 games (27 games) out of conference, then the Western Conference teams at 57% victory clip versus the Eastern conference would have, on average, a record of 15-12, only a three game bulge over 0.500. A team that was exactly at median strength for the Western Conference, and playing in the Western Conference, would be playing the rest of its (approximate) 55 games at a clip of 50% victory rate. This winning percentage rate, played out for the 55 games within the Western Conference, would yield a record of 27.5-27.5. This team's overall record should translate to about a 42 or 43 win season.

Now move this median-strength Western-Conference team to the Eastern conference. This team would now play 55 games at 57% victory clip, totaling a record of 31-24, and would (on average) split the 27 games versus the Western Conference, and would have a record of approximately 45-37. That means for these mid-level teams approximately 6% more victories by virtue of a change in conference. That might not sound like a huge amount but with 30 teams' averages' clustering mostly between 0.400 and 0.600, these differences are quite large.

A team with a 45-37 record in the East would be in fifth place overall in the East, ahead of the Wizards, trailing only the East's "big four": Celtics, Pistons, Magic, Cavaliers. There is no team in the West that currently exactly translates to a 42.5 victory season, but that imaginary team would be somewhere between the Sacramento Kings and the Portland Trail Blazers. The Trail Blazers currently translate to over 43 victories and in the East would probably have achieved 46 victories:46-36, on par with the Cavaliers. The Nuggets would, under this scheme, as an Eastern conference team achieve 52 or 53 victories, e.g. 52-30 or 53-29. This would put them on par or ahead of the Magic. It could thus be argued that (conversely) were the Magic or Cavaliers to be playing in the West they would be lottery teams, with the obverse diminution in their victory total by virtue of playing in the tougher conference against tougher teams two thirds of the time.

If we were to go solely by record we would have the first round match ups

1.- Celtics -vs.- 16.- 76ers
2.- Pistons -vs.- 15.- Trail Blazers
3.- Hornets -vs.- 14.- Wizards
4.- Lakers -vs.- 13.- Cavaliers
5.- Rockets -vs.- 12.- Nuggets
6.- Suns -vs.- 11.- Warriors
7.- Spurs -vs.- 10.- Mavericks
8.- Jazz -vs.- 9.- Magic

Leaving lottery teams:
17.- Raptors
18.- Kings
19.- Hawks
20.- Nets
21.- Pacers
22.- Bulls
23.- Bobcats
24.- Bucks
25.- Clippers
26.- Knicks
27.- Timberwolves
28.- Grizzlies
29.- SuperSonics
30.- Heat

But as we can see from above, Eastern conference teams in-season records are inflated by virtue of predominant (weak) Eastern infra-conference play. If we take a little bit of mathematical liberty and apply the same reverse-equalizer effect that we applied for the Nuggets and Trail Blazers above two other teams on the cusp or below in the Western Conference and match them up against low-lying Eastern conference playoff teams we might knock a few more Eastern conference teams out of playoff contention based on strength. More precisely how many more Western Conference teams are stronger than the Wizards and 76ers (having already established that the Trailblazers and Nuggets are)? Possibly none, but possibly one: Sacramento Kings -- whose end season record, were they an Eastern conference team, would probably be 39-43 record, possibly squeezing out the 76ers.their current winning rate would likely be higher if they were an Eastern conference team on the verge of the playoffs rather than a Western Conference team with no hope, so, therefore, their current winning rate (as with other Western Conference also-rans) likely would be higher were they to be in the Eastern conference and suddenly become playoff-competitive. Similarly they 76ers and Atlanta Hawks and teams like them would be tanking like crazy with no playoff hopes were they to be moved to the Western Conference.

At any rate, if we leave the 76ers in the playoffs as possibly stronger than the Kings, we, at least, are left with different playoff seedings:

1.- Celtics -vs.- 16.- 76ers
2.- Pistons -vs.- 15.- Wizards
3.- Hornets -vs.- 14.- Magic
4.- Lakers -vs.- 13.- Cavaliers
5.- Rockets -vs.- 12.- Trail Blazers
6.- Suns -vs.- 11.- Nuggets
7.- Spurs -vs.- 10.- Warriors
8.- Jazz -vs.- 9.- Mavericks

with only the Celtics and Pistons (from the East) likely to get past the first round.

More importantly the lottery teams' (inverse) rankings would reshuffle, with the Timberwolves' and Grizzlies' showing as slightly stronger than the Knicks, who would now (thanks to Isaiah Thomas) be in the plum spot of #3, with much higher odds of getting the top pick or a stud than at #5. Only four or five teams from the West would get lottery picks at all; about twice as many from the East would be getting lottery picks. This, after a few years, would reverse Western Conference superiority.

The Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen trades do not and will not. Their effect on the Celtics is wonderful and a joy to behold for us Boston fans, but look where Miami is now two years after their title. The Celtics' given-up draft picks and young players (including soon-to-be all-star Al Jefferson) all reside or will reside in the West.

(more nearly) "genuine" adjusted lottery team rankings:
17.- Kings or 76ers
18.- Raptors
19.- Hawks
20.- Nets
21.- Pacers
22.- Bulls
23.- Bobcats
24.- Bucks
25.- Clippers
26.- Timberwolves
27.- Grizzlies
28.- Knicks
29.- SuperSonics
30.- Heat



Lastly, a good number of the middle level lottery teams from the East, above, probably would have had seasons of more tanking, with absolutely no chance of making the playoffs, were they Western Conference teams, so that teams like the Raptors, Hawks, Nets, Pacers, Bulls, Bobcats, and Bucks would probably have made earlier plunges, divesting players such as did the Grizzlies, Heat, Clippers earlier.

Whether or not the playoff structure is kept as is, changing the draft order to reflect genuine strength and strength of play within conference is warranted, and necessary so that preponderance of talent does not remain so lopsided geographically (and those ping-pong balls last year, translating into Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, for Portland and Seattle didn't help!)